All eyes are on the Assembly elections results in 5 states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur.
While we can be happy that the mudslinging, press-hogging, and blame games are finally going to be over, the number-one question – especially for Goa is ‘Who’s going to form the Govt?’
Everyone from polling pundits to political analysts, and laymen to barmen have been trying to answer this for months.
BJP OR CONGRESS? CORRUPTION OR PROGRESS?
Both the BJP and Congress are claiming victory.
While the BJP is seeking a 3rd straight term in Assembly since 2012, the Congress is aiming to stage a comeback for progress.
In all the News & Exit Polls, current Chief Minister Pramod Sawant has dismissed any ‘Bhivpachi Goroz’ in the exit poll results, saying the ‘double-engine’ BJP would get 22 in 2022.
DEJAVU NOT POSSIBLE IN 2022
If BJP fails to win a majority, it may have an impact in forming the govt as this time, Goans will never allow a repeat of the 2017 horse-trading.
However, the bigger impact may be seen only after the Govt is formed -- in running the State – especially containing the rise of fuel prices which is imminent given the crude oil crossing US$125/- a barrel.
EVM & CHURCHILL
While Churchill Alemao has voiced his worry about the ‘machine’, the Indian Govt states EVMs - electronic voting machines to be ‘transparent and unbiased’ and say those criticizing are doing so out of the fear of defeat.
In my research, I have found no truth in the possibility of hacking or tampering EVMs Moreover, now the EVMs have a printout option which can be used if necessary.
REVOLUTIONARY GOANS
Everyone, including priests & pundits, are concerned whether Goa is going on the right track or headed down the wrong.
Migrated Goans too remain deeply connected. Ofcourse, their connection shows through their personal, cultural, and political links. Everyone respects the concern, no doubt about it.
RG REVOLUTION – A WASTE?
Looks like there was too much of hysteria about RG – Revolutionary Goans. They are not figuring in anyone’s books except in Londonkars & Tiatrists’.
Everyone feels with the emotions of the Goans supporting Revolutionary Goans.
But from a nationalistic point of view -- whether we like it or not -- the name Revolutionary Goans brings Goans an awful name at the international level, and hatred (from non-Goan Indians’ point of view).😡
RG implies similarity to ISIS -- Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. Whatever, this is just my personal view and I need no education from anyone on this please.
RG SURVIVAL IS SHORTLIVED
I have my reasons.
1. It’s a regional party.
Regional parties need funds to survive. RG had 38 candidates in the election; each candidate was able to spend max 28 lakhs, and even this might have been not enough given the national parties spending like water.😇
2. RG is not Shiv Sena, it’s footing is not on the same level as other regionally recognized parties; it will never be -- just with the support of Londonkars or US Goans.
3. The ‘agenda’ which RG is fighting for -- the POGO - Persons of Goan Origin, is also advocated by Goa Forward and other parties who too can take up the bill/issues in Assembly. Why only RG?
If RG is thinking of claiming Dual Citizenship for Portuguese Goans, well it is a far cry; that will not happen; people should be content with OCI, and respect it.
4. Moreover, the world is changing to National Parties. In US it is Democratic or Republican; UK it is Labor Party or Conservative; Russia is either United Russia or Communist Party, etc.
RG v/s BJP
Every Goan constituency has an average electorate of 25,000/- out of which 80% voting was conducted.
With an average 4 candidates in each constituency, the split in votes and victory margin will be very slim. Even a max 5000 votes can give victory in some places, or a candidate can lose by 10 votes. We will see.
If any of the BJP candidates win by SLENDER VOTES, it will be due to RG’s anti-BJP campaign. Whatever votes the Congress was supposed to get will be eaten by RG, giving BJP the crucial benefit.
CONGRESS WILL FORM GOVT?
Congress Leader Digamber Kamat & Crorepati Michael Lobo feel the Congress will register comprehensive victories in both North & South and claim to form the Govt by 5pm on 10th March.
Digamber slogan ‘Goencho Athan Goencho Fuddar’ looks to be holding an edge with Goa Forward, MGP, IND supporting.
However, the Lobo family will hold Digamber’s ‘Fuddar’ if the Lobos win the Calangute & Siolim seats.
PREDICTION:
My Prediction may not be based on ground reality and may never be correct. But that is the beauty of the game – it’s fundamental unpredictability is part of the dramatic appeal.👏
If the MEDIA is to be believed, this PREDICTION will be 90% correct. Everyone is welcome to comment theirs just to see how good you hit the bulls eye in civics.
Well, most of us love to hide our personal views and enjoy hearing others, but believe me it’s a great satisfaction when you get the scores right. Try it. Here's mine and we will see if the Ground Reality prevails over Media.💞
TOTAL – 40
CONGRESS – 16
BJP – 12
MGP – 5
GF – 2
IND – 2
TMC – 1
RG – 1
NCP - 1
AAP – 0
PREDICTED WINNERS
1. Pernem - Pravin Arlekar (BJP)
2. Mandrem - Jit Arolkar (MGP)
3. Siolim - Delilah Lobo (Congress)
4. Saligao - Kedar Naik (Congress)
5. Calangute - Michael Lobo (Congress)
6. Mapusa - Sudhir Kandolkar (Congress)
7. Porvorim - Rohan Khaunte (BJP)
8. Aldona - Carlos Ferreira (Congress)
9. Tivim - Manoj Parab (RGP)
10. Bicholim - Rajesh Patnekar (MGP)
11. Mayem - Santosh Sawant (Goa Forward)
12. Sanquelim - Pramod Sawant (BJP)
13. Valpoi - Viswajeet Rane (BJP)
14. Poriem - Divya Rane (BJP)
15. Panaji - Utpal Parrikar (IND)
16. Taligao - Jennifer Monsarate (BJP)
17. St Cruz - Rudolf Fernandes (Congress)
18. St Andre - Anthony Fernandes (Congress)
19. Cumbarjua - Rajesh Faldessai (Congress)
20. Priol - Pandurang Dhavlikar (MGP)
21. Madkai - Sudin Dhavlikar (MGP)
22. Ponda - Rajesh Verenkar (Congress)
23. Shiroda - Subhash Shirodkar (BJP)
24. Sanvordem - Vinayak Gawas (MGP)
25. Sanguem - Prasad Gaonkar (Congress)
26. Curchorem - Nilesh Cabral (BJP)
27. Quepem - Babu Kavlekar (BJP)
28. Canacona - RameshTawadkar (BJP)
29. Cuncolim - Yuri Alemao (Congress)
30. Velim - Filipe Nery Rodrigues (NCP)
31. Navelim - Avertano Furtado (Congress)
32. Benaulim - Churchill Alemao (TMC)
33. Margao - Digamber Kamat (Congress)
34. Fatorda - Vijai Sardesai (Goa Forward)
35. Nuvem - Alex Sequeira (Congress)
36. Curtorim - Reginald Lourenco (IND)
37. Cortalim - Olencio Sequeira (Congress)
38. Dabolim - Mauvin Godinho (BJP)
39. Murmugao - Sankalp Amonkar (Congress)
40. Vasco - Krishna Salkar (BJP)